Subprime History & Future

I mentioned previously my friend Paul Muolo, writer and reporter for the industry's premiere publication, National Mortgage News for the past 25 years or so, is writing a book on the history of Subprime (which he's interviewed me about several times so far). He had a synopsis in his on-line 'What We're Hearing' column on there main website this past Friday, about his front page piece in the paper yesterday "B&C Vanishes as volumes Fall to 7-Year Low" where he says "subprime originations were virtually nonexistent. " In a nutshell, his synopsis Friday said in part "... In Q4 lenders funded just $6 billion in subprime mortgages. In 2005 -- the peak year for subprime production -- the industry originated $807 billion in A- to D loans. It's safe to say that the subprime industry has been wiped off the face of the map ...."

To that end, and as a remark to him, I suggested he should be comparing recent stats not as against the biggest boom years for Subprime in all of history, but more accurately more like a usuable comparison to 1998 (the final full year of usual/normal production before the boom in the industry during the '98 to 12-05 cycle), as those numbers are more real-world (vs. the dream numbers of that 'easy-street' cycle period) and probably the levels of subprime's future production going forward.

I've asked him to get me those stats - which I'll report to you - since it is my belief they will reflect what you can expect for the next several years. Hopefully, he'll consider my opinion and write more with this viewpoint; I sure will.